
In Focus - Trade Finance: Ill Winds Blowing?
Just as expectations are rising for a rebound in trade in the second half of the year, a potential headwind is blowing in an oft-overlooked area of globalization: trade finance.

Just as expectations are rising for a rebound in trade in the second half of the year, a potential headwind is blowing in an oft-overlooked area of globalization: trade finance.

U.S. seasonally-adjusted real trade data showed a notable upturn in the month of January, with imports gaining across a range of categories. While real imports ended up nearly flat over January 2022, there was substantial variation across subcategories.

U.S. seasonally-adjusted real trade data showed a notable upturn in the month of January, with imports gaining across a range of categories. While real imports ended up nearly flat over January 2022, there was substantial variation across subcategories.

The mystery of the U.S. consumer’s resilience is coming into focus, with the NY Fed’s latest release on Q4 2022 consumer credit showing a jump in credit card balances to $986 billion.

January’s retail sales numbers show that U.S. consumers are still buying, though not evenly across all sectors and only at a moderate pace. When smoothed and adjusted for goods inflation – or even deflation! – a different view emerges from the ebullient headline numbers.

Interest in nearshoring grew with pandemic-era concerns about the robustness and security of supply chains, the idea being that sourcing closer to home could help protect against future disruptions.

In October, real US goods imports were up and exports were down. Both showed growth across comparable periods from 2021 to 2022. Benign, upward-trending trade numbers conceal a lot of turbulence in component categories, however.

In October, real US goods imports were up and exports were down. Both showed growth across comparable periods from 2021 to 2022. Benign, upward-trending trade numbers conceal a lot of turbulence in component categories, however.