The latest U.S. trade numbers do show a drop in real imports, but the situation is neither as dire as it seems, nor necessarily a portent of a faltering global trading system. What we trade can have a lot to do with where we trade, and both have been shifting.
The latest U.S. trade numbers do show a drop in real imports, but the situation is neither as dire as it seems, nor necessarily a portent of a faltering global trading system. What we trade can have a lot to do with where we trade, and both have been shifting.
The cheery headline CPI number for May was deceiving. More reliable, recent core components of the same report show persistent inflation well above the Fed’s tolerance levels.
Real personal consumption expenditures in April showed their strongest monthly increase since January. U.S. consumers’ enduring dedication to spending has been most pronounced (and least explicable) in the case of durable goods.
The initial IPEF supply chain agreement is long on promises and short on binding commitments.
In its major forecast for global economic conditions, the International Monetary Fund sees a difficult year and ample downside risks. Although it’s not predicting many outright contractions, it does project a global slowdown in both trade and output growth this year.
January’s retail sales numbers show that U.S. consumers are still buying, though not evenly across all sectors and only at a moderate pace. When smoothed and adjusted for goods inflation – or even deflation! – a different view emerges from the ebullient headline numbers.
In October, real US goods imports were up and exports were down. Both showed growth across comparable periods from 2021 to 2022. Benign, upward-trending trade numbers conceal a lot of turbulence in component categories, however.
Shipping times and prices suggest supply chains are improving. Yet, there are considerable unknowns including persistently high consumer spending and the evolution of corporate inventory strategies.