
Energy Prices - Another Siphon on U.S. Consumer Demand?
Of late, energy prices have been on the rise. What might this mean for consumers and for monetary policy in the months ahead?

Of late, energy prices have been on the rise. What might this mean for consumers and for monetary policy in the months ahead?

The IMF projected India to be the world’s fastest growing large economy over the next two years. Yet on trade, India has largely struggled to achieve escape velocity from the pull of protectionism.

Whether August CPI showed an alarming revival of inflation or a minor uptick depends heavily on the weight one gives to volatile energy prices. Regardless, U.S. inflation remains well above the Fed’s target and above market expectations.

Trade Price Forecast - Flexport

Savings are being drawn down, leaving borrowing as perhaps the primary source of funding for new purchases. That presents risks to households and to the economy, as a whole.

While U.S. goods imports exceed goods exports, the latter have been growing faster this year. That growth has been led by producer-oriented categories such as petroleum products and aircraft parts, rather than products more familiar to consumers.

The latest numbers on U.S. personal income and expenditures show that consumption has been outpacing income. There are limits to how long consumption and income can go their separate ways.

No short-term policy changes were expected to come out of the annual Fed meetings in Jackson Hole and none did. But the message that the Fed still has work to do to tame inflation is likely to move longer-term rates.