By almost any measure, the U.S. labor market looks very strong. Unemployment was low, job creation was high, and there were record levels of job openings and quits. The combination likely means that wages will push upward and stoke inflation, despite weaker wage growth in April.
In its latest projections for the global economy, the IMF downgraded economic growth and trade prospects for almost everyone. Key drivers of the gloomy outlook were the conflict in Ukraine, monetary tightening, less fiscal stimulus, a slowdown in China, and the ongoing pandemic.
While Chinese imports have looked reasonably healthy in dollar terms, volume declines tell a different story. The diminished demand for key inputs, when coupled with Covid lockdown challenges and new official policy pronouncements, portend challenging economic times ahead.
We knew the Fed was going to tighten, but this week brought market-shaking news about how and how fast. It will be a rarely-tried balancing act between hiking the policy rate and selling off assets. Also this week we dig into the state of trucking and the latest sanctions…
To go on a goods buying spree, it helps to have money. This week we look at trends in real disposable income for American consumers and see how compensation is partially replacing government transfers. The balance has meant lowering income but steady consumption – so far.
The boom in demand for consumer goods, and particularly bulky durable items, has been a major driver of demand for logistics services during the 2020 - 2022 period. While our indicators do not yet show a return to pre-pandemic goods consumption, we consider and quantify the…
Flexport’s Post-Covid Indicator was launched in June 2021 to track the balance between consumer spending on goods and services. Increased spending on goods has been a major driver of logistics network activity. We have now released extensions to the PCI including a split…
Could Russia lose its WTO privileges? What would happen to tariffs? Which products might be affected? How would supply chains adapt? This report considers the mechanisms involved, the potential products impacted and how companies may adapt to the changes.