While the economy appears to be contracting and retailers worry about increased inventories, the job market in May and June continued to show strength. These hot and cold conflicting signals about the economy are highly unusual.
What is a recession? Which sectors do worst and best during a downturn? This report outlines the key measures used to track a recession - only a few are flashing red currently. Should there be a downturn, the most exposed sectors in terms of PCE spending are high-end…
What is the state of international trade? Will demand for goods remain robust? Have inventories been refilled yet? Are logistics bottlenecks clearing? In the June 2022 State of Trade webinar we identified many signs of negative pressure though a downturn has yet to get fully…
While May personal income and outlays figures showed drops in both real disposable income and personal consumption expenditures, we’ve largely seen a stabilization in these figures in recent months. The significant drops were from post-recession spikes and the current levels of…
Dealing with a Downturn - EU Logistics Pressure Matrix
The Bank of England has been at the forefront of tightening monetary policy with the first rate rise made in December. So far inflation and the housing market have yet to respond, though consumer spending is falling. More tightening may be ahead - the last time CPI was at 9.1%,…
This report reviews data from third-party countries to assess the impact of sanctions on Russian trade and finds that Russia’s trade with the EU, China and the U.S. fell by 13% sequentially in April vs. March and by 4% sequentially. Looking ahead the transformation of global…
The big news of the week was the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hike the Fed Funds rate by 75 basis points. The transmission mechanism by which this hits the broader economy tends to be longer-duration bond rates, which have risen dramatically. The effect on the economy…